This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes, but also enables an assessment of a system’s upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. Read more here.

Culley, S., Noble, S., Yates, A., Timbs, M., Westra, S., Maier, H.R., Giuliani, M. and Castelletti, A. (2016), A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate. Water Resour. Res.. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/2015WR018253